Constituency

Dorking and Horley

ONS code: E14001201
Lookup slug: dorking-and-horley

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Likely Liberal Democrat hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LDM HOLD

Liberal Democrat forecast to win in Dorking and Horley, South East

Winner: Liberal Democrat
Margin: 11.1% (5,540 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 69.7% / 71,645
Second place: Conservative 28.4%

LDMLiberal Democrat

39.5%-2.4 pts

CONConservative

28.4%-2.7 pts

RFMReform UK

20.9%+7.1 pts

GRNGreen Party

6.5%+1.4 pts

LABLabour

4.8%-3.3 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

MINMinor parties and independents

0.0%0.0 pts

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Dorking and HorleyE14001201Electorate 71,645Valid votes 49,965Invalid votes 168Majority 5,391

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,507.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 22,428. Winner: 20,921.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Chris Coghlan	Liberal Democrat	20,921	41.9%	Elected
2	Marisa Heath	Conservative	15,530	31.1%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Craig Young	Reform UK	6,898	13.8%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Nadia Burrell	Labour	4,053	8.1%
5	Lisa Scott	Green Party	2,563	5.1%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.