Constituency

Chatham and Aylesford

ONS code: E14001157
Lookup slug: chatham-and-aylesford

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Lean Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in Chatham and Aylesford, South East

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 9.6% (3,914 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 54.4% / 75,109
Second place: Conservative 25.9%

RFMReform UK

35.5%+10.9 pts

CONConservative

25.9%-2.8 pts

LABLabour

24.6%-8.9 pts

GRNGreen Party

7.5%+1.3 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

5.0%-0.3 pts

OthOther

1.0%-0.2 pts

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

0.8%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

MINMinor parties and independents

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Chatham and AylesfordE14001157Electorate 75,109Valid votes 40,845Invalid votes 124Majority 1,998

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 7,991.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 21,680. Winner: 13,689.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Tristan Osborne	Labour	13,689	33.5%	Elected
2	Nathan Gamester	Conservative	11,691	28.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Thomas Mallon	Reform UK	9,989	24.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Kim Winterbottom	Green Party	2,504	6.1%
5	Nicholas Chan	Liberal Democrat	2,175	5.3%
6	Matt Valentine	Workers Party of Britain	340	0.8%
7	Adedotun Ogundemuren	Christian Peoples Alliance	316	0.8%
8	Steve Tanner	Social Democratic Party	141	0.3%

2019 general election

Chatham and AylesfordE14000626Electorate 71,642Valid votes 43,340Invalid votes 159Majority 18,540

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Tracey Crouch	Conservative	28,856	66.6%	Elected
2	Vince Maple	Labour	10,316	23.8%
3	David Naghi	Liberal Democrat	2,866	6.6%
4	Geoff Wilkinson	Green Party	1,090	2.5%
5	John Wesley Gibson	Christian Peoples Alliance	212	0.5%

2017 general election

Chatham and AylesfordE14000626Electorate 70,419Valid votes 44,890Invalid votes 73Majority 10,458

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Tracey Crouch	Conservative	25,587	57.0%	Elected
2	Vince Maple	Labour	15,129	33.7%
3	Nicole Bushill	UK Independence Party	2,225	5.0%
4	Thomas Quinton	Liberal Democrat	1,116	2.5%
5	Bernard Hyde	Green Party	573	1.3%
6	John Gibson	Christian Peoples Alliance	260	0.6%

2015 general election

Chatham and AylesfordE14000626Electorate 66,355Valid votes 43,073Invalid votes 166Majority 11,455

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Tracey Crouch	Conservative	21,614	50.2%	Elected
2	Tristan Osborne	Labour	10,159	23.6%
3	Ian Wallace	UK Independence Party	8,581	19.9%
4	Thomas Quinton	Liberal Democrat	1,360	3.2%
5	Luke Balnave	Green Party	1,101	2.6%
6	John-Wesley Gibson	Christian Peoples Alliance	133	0.3%
7	Ivor Riddell	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	125	0.3%

2010 general election

Chatham and AylesfordE14000626Electorate 67,964Valid votes 43,807Invalid votes 54Majority 6,069

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Tracey Crouch	Conservative	20,230	46.2%	Elected
2	Jonathan Shaw	Labour	14,161	32.3%
3	John McClintock	Liberal Democrat	5,832	13.3%
4	Colin McCarthy-Stewart	British National Party	1,365	3.1%
5	Steve Newton	UK Independence Party	1,314	3.0%
6	Sean Varnham	English Democrats	400	0.9%
7	Dave Arthur	Green Party	396	0.9%
8	Maureen Smith	Christian Party, Proclaiming Christ's Lordship	109	0.2%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.