Constituency

Castle Point

ONS code: E14001154
Lookup slug: castle-point

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Lean Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in Castle Point, East of England

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 6.3% (2,540 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 57.2% / 71,026
Second place: Conservative 35.0%

RFMReform UK

41.2%+11.1 pts

CONConservative

35.0%-3.1 pts

LABLabour

14.0%-9.2 pts

GRNGreen Party

6.2%+1.0 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

3.4%+0.2 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

MINMinor parties and independents

0.0%0.0 pts

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Castle PointE14001154Electorate 71,026Valid votes 40,633Invalid votes 138Majority 3,251

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 6,204.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 21,689. Winner: 15,485.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Rebecca Harris	Conservative	15,485	38.1%	Elected
2	Keiron McGill	Reform UK	12,234	30.1%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Mark Maguire	Labour	9,455	23.3%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Bob Chapman	Green Party	2,118	5.2%
5	James Willis	Liberal Democrat	1,341	3.3%

2019 general election

Castle PointE14000622Electorate 69,608Valid votes 44,277Invalid votes 296Majority 26,634

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Rebecca Harris	Conservative	33,971	76.7%	Elected
2	Katie Curtis	Labour	7,337	16.6%
3	John Howson	Liberal Democrat	2,969	6.7%

2017 general election

Castle PointE14000622Electorate 69,470Valid votes 44,710Invalid votes 87Majority 18,872

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Rebecca Harris	Conservative	30,076	67.3%	Elected
2	Joe Cooke	Labour	11,204	25.1%
3	David Kurten	UK Independence Party	2,381	5.3%
4	Tom Holder	Liberal Democrat	1,049	2.3%

2015 general election

Castle PointE14000622Electorate 68,170Valid votes 45,450Invalid votes 117Majority 8,934

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Rebecca Harris	Conservative	23,112	50.9%	Elected
2	Jamie Huntman	UK Independence Party	14,178	31.2%
3	Joe Cooke	Labour	6,283	13.8%
4	Dominic Ellis	Green Party	1,076	2.4%
5	Sereena Davey	Liberal Democrat	801	1.8%

2010 general election

Castle PointE14000622Electorate 67,284Valid votes 45,026Invalid votes 73Majority 7,632

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Rebecca Harris	Conservative	19,806	44.0%	Elected
2	Bob Spink	Independent Save Our Green Belt	12,174	27.0%
3	Julian Ware-Lane	Labour	6,609	14.7%
4	Brendan D'Cruz	Liberal Democrat	4,232	9.4%
5	Philip Howell	British National Party	2,205	4.9%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.