Constituency

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe

ONS code: W07000085
Lookup slug: brecon-radnor-and-cwm-tawe

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Lean Liberal Democrat hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LDM HOLD

Liberal Democrat forecast to win in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, Wales

Winner: Liberal Democrat
Margin: 9.8% (4,562 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 63.7% / 73,114
Second place: Conservative 22.8%

LDMLiberal Democrat

32.6%+3.1 pts

CONConservative

22.8%-3.6 pts

RFMReform UK

21.7%+7.6 pts

LABLabour

13.1%-8.2 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

4.9%0.0 pts

GRNGreen Party

3.7%+1.1 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

0.8%0.0 pts

OthOther

0.5%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm TaweW07000085Electorate 73,114Valid votes 46,548Invalid votes 120Majority 1,472

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 8,432.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 22,168. Winner: 13,736.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	David Chadwick	Liberal Democrat	13,736	29.5%	Elected
2	Fay Jones	Conservative	12,264	26.3%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Matthew Dorrance	Labour	9,904	21.3%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Adam Hill	Reform UK	6,567	14.1%
5	Emily Durrant-Munro	Plaid Cymru	2,280	4.9%
6	Amerjit Kaur-Dhaliwal	Green Party	1,188	2.6%
7	Jonathan Harrington	Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party	372	0.8%
8	Lady Lily The Pink	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	237	0.5%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.