Constituency

Bolton North East

ONS code: E14001110
Lookup slug: bolton-north-east

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in Bolton North East, North West

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 4.6% (1,987 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 54.2% / 80,011
Second place: Labour 27.8%

RFMReform UK

32.4%+10.6 pts

LABLabour

27.8%-9.5 pts

CONConservative

19.2%-2.8 pts

GRNGreen Party

12.5%+1.7 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

3.8%+0.3 pts

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

3.2%-0.2 pts

OthOther

1.2%-0.2 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

MINMinor parties and independents

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Bolton North EastE14001110Electorate 80,011Valid votes 43,359Invalid votes 148Majority 6,653

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 2,775.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 18,941. Winner: 16,166.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Kirith Entwistle	Labour	16,166	37.3%	Elected
2	Adele Warren	Conservative	9,513	21.9%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Trevor Jones	Reform UK	9,428	21.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Hanif Alli	Green Party	4,683	10.8%
5	Rebecca Forrest	Liberal Democrat	1,507	3.5%
6	Syeda Kazmi	Workers Party of Britain	1,463	3.4%
7	Kevin Allsop	Independent	345	0.8%
8	John Partington	Independent	254	0.6%

2019 general election

Bolton North EastE14000578Electorate 67,564Valid votes 43,556Invalid votes 112Majority 378

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,502.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 21,261. Winner: 19,759.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Mark Logan	Conservative	19,759	45.4%	Elected
2	David Crausby	Labour	19,381	44.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Trevor Jones	The Brexit Party	1,880	4.3%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Warren Fox	Liberal Democrat	1,847	4.2%
5	Liz Spencer	Green Party	689	1.6%

2017 general election

Bolton North EastE14000578Electorate 67,233Valid votes 45,183Invalid votes 90Majority 3,797

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	David Crausby	Labour	22,870	50.6%	Elected
2	James Daly	Conservative	19,073	42.2%
3	Harry Lamb	UK Independence Party	1,567	3.5%
4	Warren Fox	Liberal Democrat	1,316	2.9%
5	Liz Spencer	Green Party	357	0.8%

2015 general election

Bolton North EastE14000578Electorate 67,895Valid votes 43,161Invalid votes 150Majority 4,377

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 3,740.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 22,281. Winner: 18,541.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	David Crausby	Labour	18,541	43.0%	Elected
2	James Daly	Conservative	14,164	32.8%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Harry Lamb	UK Independence Party	8,117	18.8%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Stephen Rock	Liberal Democrat	1,236	2.9%
5	Laura Diggle	Green Party	1,103	2.6%

2010 general election

Bolton North EastE14000578Electorate 66,846Valid votes 43,277Invalid votes 168Majority 4,084

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,540.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 21,410. Winner: 19,870.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	David Crausby	Labour	19,870	45.9%	Elected
2	Deborah Dunleavy	Conservative	15,786	36.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Paul Ankers	Liberal Democrat	5,624	13.0%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Duncan Johnson	UK Independence Party	1,815	4.2%
5	Norma Armston	You Party	182	0.4%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.