Constituency

Aberafan Maesteg

ONS code: W07000081
Lookup slug: aberafan-maesteg

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Lean Labour hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LAB HOLD

Labour forecast to win in Aberafan Maesteg, Wales

Winner: Labour
Margin: 9.7% (3,465 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 49.3% / 72,580
Second place: Reform UK 30.7%

LABLabour

40.4%-9.6 pts

RFMReform UK

30.7%+9.7 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

11.2%-2.1 pts

CONConservative

7.4%-0.8 pts

GRNGreen Party

5.2%+2.2 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

3.2%+0.7 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

1.7%0.0 pts

OthOther

0.5%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Aberafan MaestegW07000081Electorate 72,580Valid votes 35,755Invalid votes 79Majority 10,354

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Stephen Kinnock	Labour	17,838	49.9%	Elected
2	Mark Griffiths	Reform UK	7,484	20.9%
3	Colin Deere	Plaid Cymru	4,719	13.2%
4	Abigail Mainon	Conservative	2,903	8.1%
5	Nigel Hill	Green Party	1,094	3.1%
6	Justin Griffiths	Liberal Democrat	916	2.6%
7	Captain Beany	Independent	618	1.7%
8	Rhiannon Morrissey	Heritage Party	183	0.5%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.